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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 10 games
40%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
bengan · 9 games
89%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Jeezy · 8 games
75%
Bane
Baneoften banned
bengan · 7 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 32 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 23 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
prblms · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrider
not me · 16 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
536 picks · 318 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
435 picks · 200 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 173 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 510 bans
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
333 picks · 307 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 313 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 514 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
286 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:30
Team Synapse 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 52:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
50% · 370 games54% · 163 games
Nature's Prophetrincyq
Nature's Prophet
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeremptiness
42% · 142 games46% · 170 games
Dragon KnightRain
Dragon Knight
Marci
MarciMikey
50% · 138 games49% · 178 games
Batridermangekyou
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
48% · 340 games54% · 567 games
Hoodwinkaik
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernbengan
51% · 161 game58% · 73 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct37:20
Team Synapse 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosTA2000
47% · 70 games51% · 82 games
Svenrincyq
Sven
Invoker
InvokerMikey
49% · 99 games56% · 48 games
EarthshakerRain
Earthshaker
Mars
Marsemptiness
49% · 142 games50% · 103 games
Brewmastermangekyou
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
46% · 196 games56% · 109 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
47% · 87 games51% · 252 games
Windrangerprblms
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 61%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2