Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs predictionTSTeam Syntaxwin 1:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Rune Eaters Ariseloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Syntax
Tusksignature
Stoic · 7 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Snapfireoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Warlock
Stoic · 2 games
Rune Eaters Arise
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
ani-san · 1 game
Hoodwink
waveformn · 1 game
Largooften banned
Ankou · 1 game
Lina
Ethereal · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 356 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 233 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 346 bans
Windranger
317 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 397 bans
Bane
295 picks · 286 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Syntax
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:40
Team Syntax 51%Rune Eaters Arise 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seeremptiness
Drow Rangeryowaai
DisruptorStoic
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
LargoJeezy
ViperEthereal
52% · 268 games
Hoodwinkwaveformn
47% · 80 games
Undyingani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 53%
Series resultTeam Syntax 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1