EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Syntaxwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TJTeam Jenzloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Syntax
Tusk
Stoic · 4 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 2 games
Snapfireoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Warlock
Stoic · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
emptiness · 1 game
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
Team Jenz
Lina
No!ob · 3 games
Luna
Parker · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
Snapfireoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Omniknight
Yadomi · 1 game
Ringmaster
Jing · 1 game
Rubick
Jing · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
507 picks · 361 bans
Rubick
410 picks · 245 bans
Tiny
349 picks · 358 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 631 bans
Windranger
324 picks · 234 bans
Pangolier
313 picks · 412 bans
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 307 bans
Bane
284 picks · 270 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Jenz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:17
Team Syntax 43%Team Jenz 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosemptiness
LinaParker
ClockwerkJeezy
BeastmasterNo!ob
TuskStoic
OmniknightYadomi
52% · 164 games
RingmasterJing
Game 2prediction correct26:28
Team Syntax 44%Team Jenz 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigmaemptiness
LunaParker
InvokerJeezy
LinaNo!ob
RingmasterStoic
LargoYadomi
55% · 111 games
Shadow DemonJing
Game 3prediction missed39:39
Team Syntax 45%Team Jenz 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marsemptiness
NecrophosParker
LargoJeezy
SnapfireNo!ob
MarciStoic
Shadow DemonJing
49% · 291 game
TuskYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Jenz · 60%
Series resultTeam Syntax 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3