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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Syntaxwin 2:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Syntax

No games played over 6 months.

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 21 game
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
42%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
551 picks · 389 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 274 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 378 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 632 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 450 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
329 picks · 234 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 257 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 322 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:37
Team Syntax 33%Team Lynx 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnusemptiness
54% · 36 games46% · 86 games
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
Doom
Rubick
RubickJeezy
51% · 146 games46% · 73 games
Techieskreker
Techies
Oracle
OracleStoic
60% · 12 games48% · 35 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed60:48
Team Syntax 32%Team Lynx 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
Axeemptiness
51% · 78 games49% · 73 games
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJeezy
59% · 179 games44% · 153 games
Techieskreker
Techies
Tusk
TuskStoic
50% · 156 games47% · 187 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed36:13
Team Syntax 29%Team Lynx 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasteremptiness
46% · 155 games58% · 88 games
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
Largo
Warlock
WarlockStoic
40% · 159 games58% · 68 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Techies
TechiesJeezy
48% · 46 games50% · 204 games
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 81%
Series resultTeam Syntax 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3