FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwink
dEsire · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Slardar
Cloud · 3 games
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 2 games
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 15 games
Snapfire
Wein · 15 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
296 picks · 732 bans
Disruptor
276 picks · 252 bans
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 176 bans
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 674 bans
Pugna
255 picks · 274 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 245 bans
Marci
247 picks · 675 bans
Nature's Prophet
246 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:24
Team Tea 58%eSpoiled 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinKami
Medusassnovv1
Dragon KnightWorick
PuckDifference
PangolierCloud
DisruptorWein
SnapfiredEsire
Elder Titanasdekor_r
BaneSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction missed11:30
Team Tea 61%eSpoiled 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightWorick
Medusassnovv1
Troll WarlordKami
Queen of PainDifference
MarsCloud
Enchantressasdekor_r
MuertadEsire
DisruptorWein
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 67%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2