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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 17 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
xn丶e · 15 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 11 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 43 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 28 games
54%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 23 games
39%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 22 games
82%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
706 picks · 344 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
591 picks · 621 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1152 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 681 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 255 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 392 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
345 picks · 394 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tea
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:28
Team Tea 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherShigetsu
58% · 43 games54% · 45 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Bristleback
BristlebackCloud
51% · 273 games48% · 339 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritxn丶e
45% · 277 games45% · 136 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Pudge
PudgeOneJey
54% · 79 games62% · 87 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Silencer
SilencerKaori
45% · 183 games45% · 248 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed24:37
Team Tea 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 50:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
48% · 395 games53% · 123 games
Alchemistssnovv1
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
43% · 374 games54% · 175 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
51% · 378 games48% · 247 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaKaori
49% · 245 games48% · 486 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Pudge
PudgeOneJey
53% · 57 games54% · 418 games
Batriderasdekor_r
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed10:33
Team Tea 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 29:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCloud
52% · 393 games51% · 246 games
Morphlingssnovv1
Morphling
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
47% · 92 games51% · 335 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
45% · 418 games51% · 216 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOneJey
53% · 131 game48% · 388 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKaori
51% · 368 games52% · 217 games
Ringmasterasdekor_r
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 62%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3