DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 11 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 8 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Marcisignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 6 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 17 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 12 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 11 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
566 picks · 286 bans
Disruptor
506 picks · 509 bans
Puck
378 picks · 1040 bans
Pugna
338 picks · 387 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 167 bans
Warlock
333 picks · 154 bans
Mars
332 picks · 562 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
Team Tea 58%Pipsqueak+4 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageShigetsu
MorphlingNande
Queen of PainWorick
Nature's Prophetxn丶e
MarciCloud
UndyingPalantimos
EarthshakerdEsire
ChenKidaro
PugnaSoNNeikO
TuskEkki
Game 2prediction missed22:39
Team Tea 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsCloud
Faceless VoidNande
MarciShigetsu
Leshracxn丶e
Queen of PainWorick
Night StalkerPalantimos
PugnaSoNNeikO
DazzleKidaro
SnapfiredEsire
TuskEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 65%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2