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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 12 games
92%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 9 games
11%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
584 picks · 292 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 520 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1062 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 178 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
341 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 582 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 246 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:18
Team Tea 35%Team Yandex 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
47% · 391 game46% · 442 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterV-Tune
48% · 387 games52% · 625 games
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
46% · 430 games57% · 496 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
50% · 320 games51% · 283 games
SnapfireMalady
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskdEsire
48% · 415 games55% · 97 games
SlarkSaksa
Slark
Game 2prediction correct23:28
Team Tea 33%Team Yandex 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinV-Tune
55% · 250 games48% · 149 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
52% · 133 games47% · 203 games
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsCloud
48% · 229 games49% · 127 games
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfiredEsire
45% · 279 games51% · 271 game
TinySaksa
Tiny
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
58% · 148 games47% · 289 games
HoodwinkMalady
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 78%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2