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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team_Teamloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team_Team

Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Crystallize · 5 games
80%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
EcNart · 4 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Crystallize · 3 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 336 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
241 picks · 116 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 475 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
215 picks · 297 bans
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
210 picks · 216 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 371 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
196 picks · 289 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 432 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Team_Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:39
Team_Team 45%KZ TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 1:06:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreCrystallize
45% · 47 games49% · 60 games
Slark7jesu
Slark
Zeus
ZeusMoonlight
48% · 30 games57% · 16 games
Lone DruidSkyLark
Lone Druid
Tidehunter
TidehunterInfernal
48% · 118 games51% · 91 game
MagnusW1sh-
Magnus
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEcNart
54% · 125 games47% · 62 games
PugnaAstral
Pugna
55% · 91 game
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct24:34
Team_Team 45%KZ TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
53% · 55 games50% · 45 games
BroodmotherSkyLark
Broodmother
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
55% · 104 games40% · 57 games
Templar AssassinFocus
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
43% · 82 games57% · 69 games
Storm SpiritW1sh-
Storm Spirit
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiEcNart
39% · 10 games51% · 29 games
MarciSsaSpartan
Marci
50% · 51 game
GrimstrokeAstral
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 63%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2