?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team_Teamwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nightshadeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team_Team

Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Crystallize · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
EcNart · 4 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 2 games
50%

Nightshade

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
ani-san · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 325 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 113 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 225 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 477 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
209 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 389 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 441 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
185 picks · 269 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Team_Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team_Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:21
Team_Team 53%Nightshade 47%
The model gave 53% on Team_Team — the game was taken by Nightshade in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallize
57% · 50 games49% · 181 game
Nature's ProphetKyzko
Nature's Prophet
Zeus
ZeusMoonlight
57% · 25 games45% · 124 games
TidehunterChodΣX
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
46% · 147 games
Phoenix
PhoenixEcNart
52% · 83 games
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Team_Team 52%Nightshade 48%
The model gave 52% on Team_Team — the game was taken by Team_Team in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
42% · 30 games50% · 166 games
Nature's ProphetKyzko
Nature's Prophet
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMoonlight
50% · 8 games61% · 42 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
50% · 39 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorEcNart
45% · 131 game
Game 3prediction correct35:18
Team_Team 56%Nightshade 44%
The model gave 56% on Team_Team — the game was taken by Team_Team in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
59% · 20 games45% · 65 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallize
64% · 23 games45% · 82 games
InvokerKyzko
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaInfernal
48% · 36 games
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEcNart
52% · 68 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam_Team · 58%
Series resultTeam_Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3