The International 10 (2021) · BO1
result vs predictionTTTeam Thunderhidewin 1:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Thunderhide
No games played over 6 months.
Team Dragon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
313 picks · 178 bans
Mars
295 picks · 410 bans
Lina
284 picks · 574 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 366 bans
Tidehunter
250 picks · 420 bans
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 258 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Void Spirit
233 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Thunderhide
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Dragon · 50%
Series resultTeam Thunderhide 1:0
Series predictionmissed