The International 2022 · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Thunderhidewin 1:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Thunderhide
No games played over 6 months.
Team Dragon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
447 picks · 324 bans
Marci
441 picks · 639 bans
Undying
321 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
268 picks · 421 bans
Enigma
260 picks · 814 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 359 bans
Puck
240 picks · 559 bans
Snapfire
239 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Thunderhide
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Thunderhide
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:32
Team Thunderhide 65%Team Dragon 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Thunderhide — the game was taken by Team Thunderhide in 38:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Thunderhide · 65%
Series resultTeam Thunderhide 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1