ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 6 games
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
NARMAN · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 5 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 4 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
180 picks · 172 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 386 bans
Dark Willow
171 picks · 70 bans
Sven
169 picks · 246 bans
Earthshaker
167 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
149 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
149 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 63%
Hero pool strength62% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:10
Team Tickles 64%Alliance 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Alliance in 43:54.
Game 2prediction correct41:23
Team Tickles 64%Alliance 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 44:51.
Game 3prediction correct27:7
Team Tickles 64%Alliance 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 32:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 64%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3