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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dudley boyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 17 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 10 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 9 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 9 games
44%

Dudley boys

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
9Class · 5 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuma · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Xakoda · 3 games
100%
Lion
Lion
9Class · 3 games
67%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
278 picks · 383 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 114 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
223 picks · 489 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
215 picks · 318 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
208 picks · 307 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 419 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
188 picks · 352 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 477 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 80%
Hero pool strength51% Dudley boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Dudley boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:32
Team Tickles 46%Dudley boys 54%
The model gave 54% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUlnit
45% · 197 games47% · 99 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Necrophos
NecrophosLorenof
58% · 29 games46% · 162 games
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
Spirit Breaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
58% · 126 games51% · 140 games
PugnaAdzantick
Pugna
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDukalis
55% · 216 games49% · 256 games
Tiny9Class
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
51% · 154 games42% · 65 games
LionXakoda
Lion
Game 2prediction correct38:33
Team Tickles 48%Dudley boys 52%
The model gave 52% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 54:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlnit
58% · 52 games56% · 48 games
Wraith KingYuma
Wraith King
Magnus
MagnusLorenof
49% · 59 games44% · 92 games
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Earth Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
51% · 66 games59% · 25 games
Lone DruidMinD_ContRoL
Lone Druid
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDukalis
52% · 145 games49% · 160 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
45% · 100 games47% · 97 games
GrimstrokeXakoda
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteDudley boys · 56%
Series resultDudley boys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2