?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 18 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 14 games
64%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 12 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 10 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 10 games
60%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 14 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
38%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 438 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
237 picks · 325 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
219 picks · 322 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
217 picks · 114 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
203 picks · 276 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
203 picks · 408 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
202 picks · 182 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 531 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Team Tickles 68%MarsBet Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
54% · 61 game45% · 124 games
Templar AssassinLukas
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightForce
56% · 96 games43% · 52 games
ZeusW1sh-
Zeus
Windranger
WindrangerLorenof
45% · 49 games54% · 62 games
VisageMr. Luck
Visage
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
54% · 97 games45% · 53 games
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
Vengeful Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
48% · 220 games53% · 232 games
TinyBignum
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Team Tickles 67%MarsBet Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 51:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
51% · 347 games55% · 171 game
SlarkLukas
Slark
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
52% · 113 games51% · 346 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightForce
47% · 120 games46% · 94 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
52% · 169 games44% · 299 games
SnapfireLeBronDota
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
56% · 290 games46% · 129 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 76%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2