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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 3:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Natus Vincereloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere

Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 10 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 9 games
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
GeneRaL · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
V-Tune · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
40%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
408 picks · 295 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 557 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 175 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 729 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
302 picks · 361 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
244 picks · 414 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 318 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
233 picks · 159 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:33
Team Tickles 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:46.
Game 2prediction missed11:25
Team Tickles 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:06.
Game 3prediction missed11:20
Team Tickles 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:55.
Game 4prediction missed14:32
Team Tickles 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:52.
Game 5prediction missed35:15
Team Tickles 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 75%
Series resultTeam Tickles 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 5