Team Tickles vs Natus Vincere Junior — prediction PCMV# · Dota 2

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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Tickleswin 2:0

series probability

66%34%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick

Daze · 15 games

40%

Dragon Knight

pma · 12 games

50%

Mirana

Daze · 12 games

50%

Techies

Daze · 12 games

42%

Batrideroften banned

Daze · 10 games

50%

Magnussignature

pma · 10 games

60%

Pangoliersignature

Ri4man · 10 games

60%

Templar Assassinoften banned

gotthejuice · 10 games

30%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

397 picks · 192 bans

46%

Ember Spirit

313 picks · 454 bans

51%

Undying

271 picks · 456 bans

46%

Techies

269 picks · 227 bans

49%

Morphling

254 picks · 474 bans

52%

Batrider

252 picks · 419 bans

55%

Storm Spirit

244 picks · 419 bans

51%

Timbersaw

229 picks · 555 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%

Hero pool strength54% Team Tickles

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total66% Team Tickles

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct30:6

Team Tickles 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%

The model gave 58% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 35:11.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo