European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 26 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 24 games
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
Luna
Ulnit · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 13 games
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 16 games
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
erase · 11 games
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 529 bans
Phoenix
303 picks · 438 bans
Vengeful Spirit
302 picks · 222 bans
Lion
298 picks · 264 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
Magnus
266 picks · 423 bans
Nature's Prophet
263 picks · 755 bans
Faceless Void
257 picks · 639 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Team Tickles 64%SIBE Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 23:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordUlnit
Morphlingnesfeer
Ember SpiritLorenof
Dragon Knightряф^^
MagnusForce
Rubicksunset
EnchantressImmersion
Crystal MaidenRein
TechiesNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct46:20
Team Tickles 62%SIBE Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 56:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierLorenof
Ember Spiritряф^^
Faceless VoidUlnit
Windrangernesfeer
MagnusForce
PugnaRein
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
Rubicksunset
PhoenixImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 72%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2