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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 23 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 19 games
74%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 19 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 15 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 12 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 11 games
45%

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 18 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
yamich · 12 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Fbz · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 405 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 398 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 585 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
207 picks · 183 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 295 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
203 picks · 100 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:25
Team Tickles 47%Team Secret 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
43% · 58 games51% · 96 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaLorenof
44% · 89 games52% · 97 games
AlchemistBOOM
Alchemist
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
50% · 105 games52% · 177 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaNARMAN
52% · 127 games49% · 66 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Io
IoDukalis
56% · 57 games
Game 2prediction correct12:33
Team Tickles 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomForce
50% · 219 games57% · 91 game
WindrangerCrystallis
Windranger
Luna
LunaUlnit
40% · 77 games49% · 312 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
47% · 110 games58% · 66 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
39% · 64 games57% · 143 games
Centaur WarrunnerEkki
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
48% · 142 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 55%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2