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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 17 games
82%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 9 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 12 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 9 games
78%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Spectre
Spectresignature
Kiritych · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
276 picks · 376 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 112 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 489 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
213 picks · 318 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 304 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 411 bans
59%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 469 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
186 picks · 351 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:24
Team Tickles 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 55:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
50% · 71 game47% · 195 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Puck
PuckLorenof
55% · 139 games43% · 73 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaForce
53% · 100 games52% · 113 games
Dark SeerNoticed
Dark Seer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
56% · 248 games38% · 74 games
Weaversayuw
Weaver
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
53% · 253 games50% · 356 games
TuskFng
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct14:23
Team Tickles 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlnit
46% · 73 games53% · 152 games
Faceless VoidKiritych
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckLorenof
57% · 102 games46% · 139 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 111 games41% · 87 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
54% · 137 games37% · 57 games
WeaverFng
Weaver
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
61% · 156 games46% · 144 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed56:30
Team Tickles 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 1:16:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLorenof
48% · 127 games44% · 36 games
Anti-MageKiritych
Anti-Mage
Spectre
SpectreUlnit
45% · 81 game51% · 131 game
LinaSquad1x
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
57% · 144 games45% · 134 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
51% · 147 games50% · 183 games
Skywrath MageFng
Skywrath Mage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
58% · 286 games46% · 301 game
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 60%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3