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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 16 games
88%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 8 games
38%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Dukalis · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 7 games
86%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 6 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 4 games
0%
Lich
Lich
aik · 3 games
67%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
0%
Magnus
Magnus
erase · 3 games
0%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 359 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
236 picks · 106 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
213 picks · 473 bans
60%
Muerta
Muerta
207 picks · 316 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
200 picks · 292 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 386 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
184 picks · 153 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 346 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 40%
Hero pool strength66% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
Team Tickles 69%Yellow Submarine 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
48% · 57 games52% · 189 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
54% · 119 games52% · 73 games
BrewmasterpJonn
Brewmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawLorenof
49% · 130 games50% · 74 games
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Weaver
WeaverDukalis
55% · 92 games48% · 76 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
47% · 155 games45% · 141 game
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Team Tickles 68%Yellow Submarine 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
53% · 50 games56% · 64 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLorenof
52% · 124 games47% · 96 games
KunkkapJonn
Kunkka
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerForce
47% · 109 games57% · 26 games
Dazzleerase
Dazzle
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
50% · 231 game46% · 158 games
Phoenixrue
Phoenix
Weaver
WeaverDukalis
49% · 68 games48% · 238 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 80%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2