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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
91%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 18 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 730 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 469 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
475 picks · 764 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 364 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
419 picks · 1041 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 504 bans
49%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 936 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 542 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 48%
Hero pool strength60% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:26
Team Tidebound 57%Aurora Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
52% · 165 games50% · 368 games
Dragon KnightNightfall
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingNothingToSay
60% · 122 games39% · 86 games
AbaddonTORONTOTOKYO
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
44% · 175 games50% · 149 games
LeshracLorenof
Leshrac
Muerta
MuertapLAnet
56% · 169 games48% · 109 games
Nature's ProphetMira
Nature's Prophet
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
53% · 114 games48% · 33 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct25:5
Team Tidebound 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
47% · 138 games55% · 147 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
Tinyshiro
48% · 379 games47% · 478 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
38% · 76 games55% · 254 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
52% · 150 games53% · 75 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
51% · 243 games48% · 32 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed13:29
Team Tidebound 51%Aurora Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarNothingToSay
43% · 65 games52% · 136 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
Tinyshiro
47% · 316 games52% · 124 games
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
AbaddonFaith_bian
52% · 57 games52% · 241 game
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
43% · 132 games55% · 213 games
WeaverMira
Weaver
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
54% · 167 games42% · 23 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 56%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3