?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 12 games
92%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 8 games
63%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 20 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
436 picks · 704 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 411 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
415 picks · 322 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
375 picks · 872 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
374 picks · 961 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 427 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Team Tidebound 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 42:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
51% · 344 games52% · 537 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
43% · 317 games49% · 287 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
46% · 446 games57% · 239 games
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
Sand King
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
44% · 215 games49% · 295 games
MuertaMira
Muerta
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidpLAnet
53% · 62 games64% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct38:22
Team Tidebound 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
54% · 361 game48% · 316 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Razor
RazorNothingToSay
43% · 130 games46% · 63 games
Night StalkerTORONTOTOKYO
Night Stalker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
51% · 144 games56% · 175 games
Monkey Kingkiyotaka
Monkey King
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidpLAnet
50% · 47 games52% · 204 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Io
Ioy`
50% · 79 games43% · 3 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2