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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 27 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
Echo · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
niu · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 26 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 25 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 22 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 22 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 361 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
610 picks · 303 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
586 picks · 498 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
571 picks · 713 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 552 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 323 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
509 picks · 758 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
502 picks · 571 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Team Tidebound 44%Aurora Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavershiro
38% · 86 games42% · 164 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Bristleback
Bristlebackniu
55% · 315 games53% · 178 games
TimbersawTORONTOTOKYO
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarEcho
48% · 170 games49% · 334 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
59% · 127 games50% · 289 games
BatriderMira
Batrider
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
47% · 443 games59% · 176 games
ChenOli
Chen
Game 2prediction missed28:20
Team Tidebound 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 45:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linashiro
48% · 61 game48% · 271 game
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckEcho
44% · 482 games52% · 251 game
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
Earthshaker
Mars
Marsniu
47% · 294 games50% · 290 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga Sireny`
61% · 150 games46% · 247 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
RingmasterpLAnet
53% · 199 games51% · 127 games
DazzleOli
Dazzle
Game 3prediction missed25:12
Team Tidebound 47%Aurora Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
55% · 164 games50% · 379 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEcho
49% · 352 games48% · 370 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Slardar
Slardarniu
55% · 177 games49% · 140 games
Primal BeastTORONTOTOKYO
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
51% · 243 games48% · 176 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterpLAnet
49% · 210 games45% · 81 game
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 57%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3