DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
Pucksignature
Echo · 11 games
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 44 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 29 games
Tusk
Wein · 29 games
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 24 games
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 24 games
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 23 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
728 picks · 348 bans
Disruptor
601 picks · 634 bans
Hoodwink
511 picks · 262 bans
Puck
427 picks · 1175 bans
Tusk
422 picks · 267 bans
Mars
418 picks · 692 bans
Dragon Knight
405 picks · 433 bans
Jakiro
361 picks · 222 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
Team Tidebound 63%eSpoiled 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeshiro
Phantom Lancerssnovv1
Queen of PainEcho
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Marsniu
Dragon Knightdualrazee
Cheny`
Bounty HunterWein
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Dazzleasdekor_r
Game 2prediction missed24:25
Team Tidebound 66%eSpoiled 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 55:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptershiro
Abaddonssnovv1
PuckEcho
Dragon Knightdualrazee
Axeniu
UnderlordCorrupted
HoodwinkpLAnet
TinyWein
Disruptory`
Pugnaasdekor_r
Game 3prediction correct18:9
Team Tidebound 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancershiro
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Dragon KnightEcho
Terrorbladessnovv1
Marsniu
SlardarCorrupted
PhoenixpLAnet
TinyWein
Dazzley`
Ringmasterasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 76%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3