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ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:1
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Excel Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 24 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 15 games
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 13 games
46%
Sand King
Sand King
Faith_bian · 13 games
54%

Excel Esports

Batrider
Batrider
Hara · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Manic · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Hara · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 669 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
402 picks · 402 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 719 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 606 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 525 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 186 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
298 picks · 579 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
294 picks · 272 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength65% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:30
Team Tidebound 86%Excel Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
51% · 341 game47% · 274 games
MorphlingManic
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingNothingToSay
56% · 225 games46% · 339 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
52% · 187 games51% · 124 games
Medusa生死
Medusa
Ringmaster
RingmasterpLAnet
49% · 142 games53% · 282 games
WindrangerCatYou
Windranger
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
49% · 279 games46% · 155 games
SilencerRedPanda
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 97%
Series resultExcel Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1