ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 1:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:0
FEFate's Edgeloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
Jakirosignature
y` · 25 games
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 15 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
Muerta
y` · 13 games
Sand King
Faith_bian · 13 games
Fate's Edge
Jakiro
BoBoKa · 1 game
Ringmaster
Undyne_ · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
lou · 1 game
Viperoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
446 picks · 671 bans
Jakiro
408 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 722 bans
Bristleback
325 picks · 614 bans
Dragon Knight
318 picks · 526 bans
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
Beastmaster
299 picks · 586 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
Team Tidebound 81%Fate's Edge 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptershiro
Morphlinglou
PangolierNothingToSay
Dark SeerBEYOND
EnigmaFaith_bian
ChenUndyne_
Jakiroy`
TinyBoBoKa
RikipLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 93%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1