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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 32 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 30 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
81%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 16 games
56%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
47%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Malady · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 643 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
472 picks · 424 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
405 picks · 857 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
392 picks · 444 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 336 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 835 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:23
Team Tidebound 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonshiro
48% · 69 games49% · 138 games
LinaQuinn
Lina
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
55% · 84 games40% · 57 games
Chaos KnightWatson
Chaos Knight
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
51% · 191 game50% · 39 games
Vengeful SpiritAce
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
49% · 139 games49% · 132 games
Nature's ProphetMalady
Nature's Prophet
Disruptor
Disruptory`
47% · 37 games58% · 154 games
MagnustOfu
Magnus
Game 2prediction missed7:28
Team Tidebound 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
48% · 268 games55% · 60 games
Drow RangerWatson
Drow Ranger
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
46% · 53 games43% · 178 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderFaith_bian
47% · 308 games53% · 278 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerpLAnet
52% · 143 games63% · 114 games
Naga SirenMalady
Naga Siren
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
47% · 194 games47% · 336 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 51%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2