The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tidebound
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 22 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
Tiny
NothingToSay · 17 games
Windranger
pLAnet · 17 games
Disruptor
y` · 16 games
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 16 games
Tiny
Copy · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 12 games
Magnussignature
BOOM · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
450 picks · 419 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 195 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 348 bans
Puck
328 picks · 807 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 852 bans
Pangolier
285 picks · 398 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 229 bans
Nature's Prophet
283 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:15
Team Tidebound 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendshiro
Ursagotthejuice
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Primal Beastpma
Queen of PainFaith_bian
UndyingNiku
PugnapLAnet
DisruptorZayac
Ogre Magiy`
DazzleRiddys
Game 2prediction missed14:22
Team Tidebound 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendshiro
Doomgotthejuice
PangolierNothingToSay
SnapfireNiku
MarsFaith_bian
Vengeful Spiritpma
WindrangerpLAnet
DisruptorRiddys
Baney`
MagnusZayac
Game 3prediction correct27:14
Team Tidebound 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautshiro
Lifestealergotthejuice
Sand KingNothingToSay
Pangolierpma
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Ember SpiritNiku
SnapfirepLAnet
MagnusZayac
Silencery`
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 63%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3