The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
Jakiro
y` · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
Disruptor
y` · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 19 games
Windranger
pLAnet · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
Nigma Galaxy
Tusk
GH · 37 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 25 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 23 games
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Marcioften banned
Ghost · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
361 picks · 257 bans
Puck
318 picks · 701 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 282 bans
Dark Willow
285 picks · 150 bans
Batrider
282 picks · 752 bans
Dawnbreaker
262 picks · 607 bans
Nature's Prophet
257 picks · 522 bans
Marci
244 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
Team Tidebound 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptershiro
MedusaGhost
UnderlordFaith_bian
LycanNo!ob
EarthshakerNothingToSay
MuertaSumaiL
SnapfirepLAnet
BaneGH
Silencery`
ClockwerkOmaR
Game 2prediction missed10:28
Team Tidebound 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidshiro
MedusaGhost
UndyingFaith_bian
MuertaSumaiL
Sand KingNothingToSay
MarsNo!ob
GrimstrokepLAnet
PhoenixGH
Baney`
ClockwerkOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 73%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2