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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 19 games
84%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 14 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 10 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 10 games
60%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 58 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 36 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
88%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
567 picks · 807 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 292 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
432 picks · 816 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
420 picks · 650 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 860 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
386 picks · 1010 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 346 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 514 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:27
Team Tidebound 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
41% · 110 games56% · 115 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
46% · 309 games58% · 221 game
DoomATF
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
50% · 165 games48% · 253 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
47% · 55 games50% · 91 game
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Muerta
Muertay`
47% · 204 games57% · 163 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct45:16
Team Tidebound 57%Team Falcons 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
55% · 277 games52% · 342 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Razor
RazorNothingToSay
51% · 145 games40% · 87 games
KunkkaQuinn
Kunkka
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
52% · 198 games52% · 174 games
DoomATF
Doom
Ringmaster
RingmasterpLAnet
42% · 47 games50% · 39 games
TinkerSneyking
Tinker
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
49% · 118 games51% · 143 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2