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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Titanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NothingToSay · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
shiro · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NothingToSay · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
50%

Titan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
421 picks · 340 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 541 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 379 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
355 picks · 183 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 443 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 583 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 815 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
330 picks · 348 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:25
Team Tidebound 80%Titan 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 38:16.
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Team Tidebound 80%Titan 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 42:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 80%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2