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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 3:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Titanloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 10 games
90%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
y` · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%

Titan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
529 picks · 771 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 590 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
495 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
482 picks · 603 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
470 picks · 394 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
440 picks · 987 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 797 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 897 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 55%
Hero pool strength65% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total86% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:30
Team Tidebound 86%Titan 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Titan in 50:04.
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Team Tidebound 86%Titan 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 24:40.
Game 3prediction correct9:22
Team Tidebound 86%Titan 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:06.
Game 4prediction correct28:16
Team Tidebound 86%Titan 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 86%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4