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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 10 games
90%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 10 games
40%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 9 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
YamSun · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 732 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 783 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 473 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 368 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 524 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
424 picks · 1039 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
412 picks · 930 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 533 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:8
Team Tidebound 70%Wildcard Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
50% · 245 games52% · 194 games
LifestealerYamSun
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
54% · 220 games51% · 231 game
PuckRCY
Puck
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
53% · 174 games50% · 58 games
AbaddonFayde
Abaddon
Muerta
MuertapLAnet
51% · 194 games43% · 69 games
UndyingSpeeed
Undying
Io
Ioy`
44% · 52 games47% · 333 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct36:8
Team Tidebound 69%Wildcard Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
55% · 76 games47% · 59 games
Nature's ProphetRCY
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
48% · 193 games52% · 111 games
Phantom AssassinYamSun
Phantom Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
48% · 21 game48% · 103 games
TidehunterFayde
Tidehunter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerpLAnet
59% · 110 games44% · 159 games
MuertaBignum
Muerta
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
50% · 111 games46% · 79 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 80%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2