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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 32 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 30 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
81%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 16 games
56%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
38%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 22 games
55%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 20 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 19 games
84%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 640 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
472 picks · 418 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 853 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
395 picks · 451 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
383 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:15
Team Tidebound 66%Wildcard Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenshiro
48% · 154 games47% · 64 games
Drow RangerYamSun
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
50% · 269 games56% · 169 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
39% · 95 games52% · 117 games
BrewmasterFayde
Brewmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
56% · 146 games57% · 113 games
Naga SirenSpeeed
Naga Siren
Oracle
Oracley`
41% · 84 games50% · 285 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct25:3
Team Tidebound 68%Wildcard Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertashiro
51% · 375 games52% · 432 games
TinyYamSun
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingNothingToSay
54% · 321 game47% · 212 games
InvokerRCY
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusFaith_bian
57% · 338 games43% · 370 games
PangolierFayde
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetpLAnet
51% · 224 games50% · 162 games
Shadow ShamanBignum
Shadow Shaman
Axe
Axey`
42% · 78 games50% · 160 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 81%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2