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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NothingToSay · 2 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
shiro · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
y` · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Faith_bian · 1 game
100%
Oracle
Oracle
y` · 1 game
100%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 27 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 517 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
397 picks · 325 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 384 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 571 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
345 picks · 169 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
339 picks · 425 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 772 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
318 picks · 469 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:17
Team Tidebound 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 51:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
55% · 128 games47% · 258 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackFaith_bian
51% · 150 games44% · 105 games
LinaXm
Lina
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
47% · 73 games54% · 203 games
Marsniu
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
53% · 348 games55% · 99 games
Naga SirenPoloson
Naga Siren
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
44% · 85 games47% · 119 games
MuertaPyw
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed42:30
Team Tidebound 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 1:22:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightshiro
47% · 372 games49% · 20 games
Bloodseekerlou
Bloodseeker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNothingToSay
49% · 92 games43% · 105 games
LinaXm
Lina
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
48% · 388 games53% · 293 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciFaith_bian
53% · 158 games50% · 366 games
TinyPyw
Tiny
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
59% · 98 games49% · 324 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2