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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
y` · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
shiro · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NothingToSay · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NothingToSay · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 1 game
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
shiro · 1 game
100%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 28 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 19 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 537 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
407 picks · 339 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 385 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 179 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 437 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 582 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 809 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
326 picks · 503 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:46
Team Tidebound 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 58:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
48% · 167 games44% · 15 games
Spectrelou
Spectre
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
57% · 194 games45% · 88 games
Terrorbladeniu
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
EarthshakerFaith_bian
43% · 56 games53% · 182 games
DoomPyw
Doom
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterpLAnet
36% · 30 games56% · 92 games
InvokerXm
Invoker
Lich
Lichy`
52% · 59 games52% · 129 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed29:13
Team Tidebound 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
51% · 275 games51% · 103 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Broodmother
BroodmotherFaith_bian
48% · 94 games56% · 200 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
55% · 187 games47% · 129 games
Terrorbladeniu
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
50% · 332 games45% · 265 games
DoomPyw
Doom
Undying
Undyingy`
47% · 65 games50% · 256 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct11:25
Team Tidebound 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
54% · 35 games45% · 303 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNothingToSay
55% · 62 games51% · 237 games
PuckXm
Puck
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
51% · 209 games48% · 218 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
47% · 266 games54% · 149 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
50% · 379 games52% · 44 games
Shadow ShamanPoloson
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3