Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IHC Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Viperoften banned
seimei · 1 game
IHC Esports
Mirana
Se · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
423 · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Tiny
ace12 · 1 game
Tusk
ace12 · 1 game
Viperoften banned
423 · 1 game
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
794 picks · 551 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 567 bans
Tusk
521 picks · 434 bans
Nature's Prophet
449 picks · 731 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 813 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 292 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 854 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Tough
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:32
Team Tough 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tough — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophetseimei
Dragon KnightSancity
62% · 35 games
Lycan423
61% · 92 games
MiranaSe
51% · 188 games
Tinyace12
Game 2prediction missed4:30
Team Tough 53%IHC Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tough — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 22:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophetseimei
Nature's Prophet423
46% · 48 games
TimbersawSancity
49% · 163 games
Rubickace12
61% · 92 games
MiranaSe
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tough · 58%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2