Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 4 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Viperoften banned
seimei · 1 game
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 11 games
Tiny
Beebie · 10 games
Snapfire
LionaX · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 8 games
Mirana
LionaX · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 7 games
Tusk
boombell · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
795 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 402 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 422 bans
Nature's Prophet
453 picks · 737 bans
Death Prophet
415 picks · 832 bans
Snapfire
412 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 859 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tough
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Tough
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:31
Team Tough 60%UD Vessuwan 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterseimei
SpectreKNP
59% · 40 games
Storm SpiritBeebie
46% · 89 games
Rubickboombell
50% · 54 games
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Game 2prediction correct46:35
Team Tough 56%UD Vessuwan 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnusseimei
Naga SirenKNP
little data
Storm SpiritBeebie
58% · 8 games
DisruptorLionaX
65% · 19 games
Snapfireboombell
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tough · 67%
Series resultTeam Tough 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2