ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Trustloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ccrychicwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Trust
Venomancer
出省 · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
冷鸟 · 2 games
Wraith King
Mercury · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
Dark Willow
冷鸟 · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
Mirana
冷鸟 · 1 game
crychic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
430 picks · 547 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 369 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 435 bans
Luna
315 picks · 369 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 570 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 340 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% crychic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% crychic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:52
Team Trust 47%crychic 53%
The model gave 53% on crychic — the game was taken by crychic in 1:03:42.
Model check result
Model favoritecrychic · 53%
Series resultcrychic 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1