ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
TEAM TURTLEwin 1:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Trustloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TEAM TURTLE
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Yang · 4 games
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Yang · 3 games
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Chalice · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Somnus · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 2 games
Team Trust
Venomanceroften banned
出省 · 2 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
冷鸟 · 2 games
Wraith King
Mercury · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
Dark Willow
冷鸟 · 1 game
Mirana
冷鸟 · 1 game
Muerta
冷鸟 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 518 bans
Clockwerk
370 picks · 356 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 569 bans
Dark Willow
270 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 349 bans
Batrider
259 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength64% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:5
TEAM TURTLE 80%Team Trust 20%
The model gave 80% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackMonet
Queen of PainQ7
Ember SpiritSomnus
Enigma冷鸟
DawnbreakerChalice
Nyx AssassinTz.
Dark Willowfy
DisruptorFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 94%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1