Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ukraineloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Ukraine
Broodmotheroften banned
Batyuk · 1 game
Dark Willow
QBFY · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Tusk
EcNart · 1 game
UALEIKUMNIHAO
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 487 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 583 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 618 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 659 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Team Ukraine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Ukraine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
Team Ukraine 51%UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Ukraine — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 38:02.
Game 2prediction missed23:36
Team Ukraine 51%UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Ukraine — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 34:42.
Game 3prediction missed32:14
Team Ukraine 51%UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Ukraine — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 29:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Ukraine · 51%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3