The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
297 picks · 176 bans
Mars
286 picks · 396 bans
Lina
277 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
Hoodwink
254 picks · 88 bans
Shadow Demon
244 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
227 picks · 382 bans
Luna
224 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:47
Team Undying 78%Alliance 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Alliance in 1:02:50.
Game 2prediction missed20:44
Team Undying 78%Alliance 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Alliance in 46:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 78%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2