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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Undying

No games played over 6 months.

Eternity

Lion
Lion
YamSun · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
FrancisLee · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
100%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 3 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 958 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 553 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
355 picks · 707 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 571 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 298 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 283 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
268 picks · 142 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 24%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total90% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:6
Team Undying 90%Eternity 10%
The model gave 90% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Eternity in 21:54.
Game 2prediction missed42:39
Team Undying 90%Eternity 10%
The model gave 90% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Eternity in 40:51.
Game 3prediction missed26:3
Team Undying 90%Eternity 10%
The model gave 90% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Eternity in 25:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 90%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3