Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Iooften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
437 picks · 967 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 586 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 679 bans
Mars
341 picks · 594 bans
Earth Spirit
311 picks · 284 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 180 bans
Phoenix
266 picks · 385 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 229 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:13
Team Undying 67%The Cut 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Undying — the game was taken by The Cut in 35:35.
Game 2prediction missed11:28
Team Undying 67%The Cut 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Undying — the game was taken by The Cut in 20:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 67%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2