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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
31%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 11 games
27%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 10 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
78%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Duster · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 193 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 572 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 873 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 233 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 386 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
Team Unique 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Unique — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 31:33.
Game 2prediction missed12:28
Team Unique 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Unique — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:45.
Game 3prediction missed40:24
Team Unique 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Unique — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 51:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 56%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3