Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 23 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 20 games
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
459 picks · 180 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 197 bans
Mars
347 picks · 551 bans
Puck
327 picks · 820 bans
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 479 bans
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 614 bans
Tiny
302 picks · 242 bans
Enchantress
287 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:23
Team Unique 39%Hellbear Smashers 61%
The model gave 61% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 34:51.
Game 2prediction correct24:33
Team Unique 39%Hellbear Smashers 61%
The model gave 61% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 50:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 61%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2