ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ICit's coming romeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
it's coming rome
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 175 bans
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 621 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 477 bans
Puck
304 picks · 692 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 121 bans
Mars
287 picks · 517 bans
Lina
262 picks · 345 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% it's coming rome
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:27
Team Unique 50%it's coming rome 50%
The model gave 50% on it's coming rome — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 32:17.
Game 2prediction correct24:12
Team Unique 50%it's coming rome 50%
The model gave 50% on it's coming rome — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 32:26.
Game 3prediction correct12:19
Team Unique 50%it's coming rome 50%
The model gave 50% on it's coming rome — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 48:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteit's coming rome · 50%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3