Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
388 picks · 985 bans
Lion
374 picks · 194 bans
Mars
366 picks · 597 bans
Grimstroke
354 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
302 picks · 656 bans
Void Spirit
293 picks · 481 bans
Tusk
291 picks · 225 bans
Snapfire
289 picks · 165 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:34
Team Unique 54%Level UP 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:07.
Game 2prediction missed11:38
Team Unique 54%Level UP 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:54.
Game 3prediction missed41:39
Team Unique 54%Level UP 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Level UP in 56:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 54%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3