Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoTechiesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
NoTechies
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Crystallize · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
223 picks · 473 bans
Void Spirit
199 picks · 259 bans
Mars
198 picks · 352 bans
Earth Spirit
178 picks · 144 bans
Keeper of the Light
154 picks · 246 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
145 picks · 474 bans
Rubick
134 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% NoTechies
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% NoTechies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
Team Unique 39%NoTechies 61%
The model gave 61% on NoTechies — the game was taken by NoTechies in 30:23.
Game 2prediction correct13:27
Team Unique 39%NoTechies 61%
The model gave 61% on NoTechies — the game was taken by NoTechies in 32:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTechies · 61%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2